This page contains a list of the courses I currently offer, categorized in themes. These courses are taught both in open forum or in a forum restricted to participants from a single company, which allows discussion of specific processes and practices, as well as the treatment of “live” examples. 


Let me know if you are interested in open courses and I will send you an e-mail when course dates are advertised and please do not hesitate to contact me to discuss internal training for your company.

In addition to these courses, I also design teaching and training courses tailored to specific company needs in a variety of fields related to mathematical models for business decision making and the best business practice for using mathematical modelling to support decision processes. Please contact me to discuss your requirements.


Courses are offered on-site or online. Online courses are taught a half day at a time and so take place over a period of time that is twice as long. Numbers in brackets are the number of full onsite days.



Mathematical models for business

Fundamentals of probability for decision making (1)

  • The most essential concepts and tools you need to model decisions under uncertainty

  • Probability • Statistics • Simulations • Modelling decisions

Spreadsheet Uncertainty Models (SUMs) (2)

  • Requires fundamentals 

  • Nothing but examples with theory on the fly

Assessing probability assessments (1)

  • How to see if your probabilistic predictions were any good by comparing to outcomes

  • Includes Excel worksheets and Python scripts for performing lookback analyses


The business of mathematical modelling

An executive’s guide to mathematical modelling (1)

  • Governance essentials for commissioning and using models for decision making

  • What is modelling • What can you reasonably expect from models • Managing modelling expertise • Modelling versus Data Analytics
    • Model-based decision making

Modelling fundamentals for managers and modellers (1)

  • Decision quality • Model-based decision making • Causal modelling • Models and data • Objectivity • Communicating uncertainty
    • Modelling uncertainty



Risk management

Quantitative enterprise risk management (QuantERM) (2)

  • How to introduce quantitative methods to an existing ERM practice

  • Quantitative assessment of risks • Aggregation • Uncertainties • Simulation • Process and Governance

Oil and Gas Exploration

Fundamentals of probability for exploration geoscientists (1)

  • Introductory / refresher course in fundamentals of probability 

  • What is probability? • Risk elements • Dependence • Uncertainty • Choice and parameterization of distributions • Practicalities • Portfolios

Best practice in probability for exploration geoscience (2)

  • Dependence • Parsing data quality and ambiguity • Defining risk and uncertainty • Choosing distributions • Parameterizing distributions • Portfolio analysis • Venture analysis • GRV • Basin statistics • Lookbacks

Risk and volumetrics in complex traps (½)

  • Best practice for constructing GRV distributions

Basin statistics and yet-to-find (1)

  • Basin statistics • Analogues • Stochastic forecasting • Yet to find


Lookbacks (1)

  • Standard lookback analyses • Uncertainty ranges • Bias inference

Exploration portfolio analysis (1)

  • Modelling value • Portfolio representations • Risk and reward • Portfolio optimization • Dependencies and venture modelling • Decision modelling • Decision processes and workflows