graemekeithMay 5, 20206 minPlayground PoxThis is a toy model of a playground, designed to illustrate aspects of serious models of a global epidemic.
graemekeithMay 1, 20206 minThe pains of epidemiologyBoth a layman's introduction to models that are influencing our lives and a list of things to look for in assessing models in the media
graemekeithMar 30, 20202 minIn defence of armchair epidemiologyWith the public at the mercy of the mandate of a handful of mathematical models, the public understanding of those models is essental
graemekeithMar 23, 20203 minDisease dynamics distilledThe absolute basics of what you need to know about the mathematics of how the novel Coronavirus will spread and how we might stop it. Thi...
graemekeithMar 21, 20207 minDisease dynamics deconstructedA walk through the simplest model of the spread of COVID-19 and what even a simple model can tell us about what we read in the press
graemekeithMar 18, 20205 minThe Imperial College COVID-19 response team's paper on interventionsThe Imperial College COVID-19 response team's paper makes sobering reading. This article gives a brief resume and some take-aways
graemekeithMar 2, 20206 minOut of the pit: Alternatives to the top ten probabilistic pitfalls in oil and gas explorationAfter publishing my probabilistic pitfalls article, my thirteen-year old son (who apparently follows me on LinkedIn; who knew?) came and ...
graemekeithFeb 28, 20205 minSwanson's SwansongSwanson's rule is a commonly used device in a variety of risk and uncertainty management contexts where a continuous distribution is repl...
graemekeithFeb 27, 20201 minInterview with Dr. Sarah Gordon, CEO of Satarla Risk ManagementEnormously enjoyable conversation with Dr. Sarah Gordon, CEO of Satarla Risk Management (with whom I am very proud to be an associate con...
graemekeithFeb 26, 20203 minThe inevitability of optimismNine out of ten transport infrastructure projects run over on cost. Actual costs are on average around 30% higher than projected (sagging...
graemekeithFeb 24, 20201 minDecision Decision DecisionHow releasing your inner mathematician can help you make better decisions