This is a toy model of a playground, designed to illustrate aspects of serious models of a global epidemic.

Both a layman's introduction to models that are influencing our lives and a list of things to look for in assessing models in the media

With the public at the mercy of the mandate of a handful of mathematical models, the public understanding of those models is essental

The absolute basics of what you need to know about the mathematics of how the novel Coronavirus will spread and how we might stop it. Thi...

A walk through the simplest model of the spread of COVID-19 and what even a simple model can tell us about what we read in the press

The Imperial College COVID-19 response team's paper makes sobering reading. This article gives a brief resume and some take-aways

After publishing my probabilistic pitfalls article, my thirteen-year old son (who apparently follows me on LinkedIn; who knew?) came and ...

Swanson's rule is a commonly used device in a variety of risk and uncertainty management contexts where a continuous distribution is repl...

Enormously enjoyable conversation with Dr. Sarah Gordon, CEO of Satarla Risk Management (with whom I am very proud to be an associate con...

Nine out of ten transport infrastructure projects run over on cost. Actual costs are on average around 30% higher than projected (sagging...

How releasing your inner mathematician can help you make better decisions