graemekeithMar 9, 20205 minThe perils of extreme percentilesIf we parameterize with P99 then we parameterize an approximation to the distribution far beyond where it approximates the distribution
graemekeithMar 1, 20207 minTop ten probabilistic pitfalls in oil and gas explorationSummary list Lookback: No lookback or, what it sometimes worse, lookbacks that are so naive you'd have been better off without them. See ...
graemekeithMar 1, 20201 minRisk Coordinators' Workshop 2020It is a great honour to be invited to Rose & Associates' Risk Coordinators Workshop in London on 11 March. The RCW gathers senior manager...
graemekeithFeb 29, 20201 minOil and Gas service overviewThe oil and gas business is characterized by extreme uncertainty and vertiginous volatility. That and 25 years, on and off, in the busine...
graemekeithFeb 28, 20205 minSwanson's SwansongSwanson's rule is a commonly used device in a variety of risk and uncertainty management contexts where a continuous distribution is repl...
graemekeithFeb 27, 20201 minInterview with Dr. Sarah Gordon, CEO of Satarla Risk ManagementEnormously enjoyable conversation with Dr. Sarah Gordon, CEO of Satarla Risk Management (with whom I am very proud to be an associate con...
graemekeithFeb 26, 20203 minThe inevitability of optimismNine out of ten transport infrastructure projects run over on cost. Actual costs are on average around 30% higher than projected (sagging...