Stochastic ApS was launched in October 2019 as a vehicle for its founder Dr. Graeme Keith to support companies and institutions looking to make best use of their data and expertise both by incorporating practical, fit-for purpose mathematical models into their business and strategic decision-making processes, and by helping to ensure that the models and analytics they commission and utilize are fit-for-purpose and optimally deployed.

Informed by more than 20 years industrial and commercial experience, including a series of senior management positions in small, medium and multinational companies, Graeme has developed an approach to mathematical modelling that distills elements from probability theory and causal analysis, together with insights from his study of scientific methods and best modelling practice. The result is a modelling paradigm, specifically designed for tackling business and policy challenges, that is practical, insightful, fit-for-purpose and and cost effective.

This approach has been successfully applied to a wide variety of applications. The central role of uncertainty and causal analysis is specifically tailored to support risk management, strategy and portfolio management, as well as more general analysis of decisions under uncertainty. The focus on causal models additionally confers substantial insight in data analytics, as well as diagnostics and failure analysis. All of these applications are supported by Graeme's extensive hands-on and management experience in those areas. 

​Through a variety of joint ventures and partnerships, Stochastic is able to assemble teams of experts to tackle a wide variety of problems in a diverse selection of industries.

Graeme Keith MA, PhD, CMath, FIMA

Advisor  Teacher  Facilitator  Speaker • Author 

Since completing his doctorate in applied mathematics at Cambridge in 2000, Graeme has worked with the practical application of mathematical modelling across a wide variety of fields and industries. First as a research associate at Cambridge and later as a engineering consultant based in Copenhagen, Graeme started out developing mathematical models for failure investigation, risk management and decision analysis.

After 10 years in consultancy, Graeme started applying his analytical acumen to strategy and portfolio management for capital intensive project portfolios, first as head of research at the oil and gas division of DONG E&P and later as exploration portfolio manager at Maersk Oil.


Leveragíng the close relationship between strategy and risk management in the highly volatile oil and gas market, Graeme moved in to twin roles as lead strategy advisor and head of enterprise risk management at Maersk, before starting Stochastic ApS in late 2019..

Graeme teaches at Copenhagen University and the Technical University of Denmark. He is a fellow of the UK institute of Mathematics and its Applications and a chartered mathematician. He is also on the board of the Risk chapter of the Danish Engineering Society.

Graeme lives in Copenhagen with his wife Karin, his three children Carl (2006), Theo (2008) and Isobel (2014), their two cats Salamis and Archimedes, a growing collection of musical instruments and an even more rapidly growing collection of books.